Market Insights
Dan's Market Insights
August 2026 — what I'm seeing in the market right now
Two things are true about this market at the same time, and if you only look at one of them, you'll draw the wrong conclusion. Flight activity is up sharply. Pre-owned transactions slowed hard this spring, then started coming back. Here's what's actually happening, and what it means if you're thinking about buying or selling before year-end.
What's Actually Happening
Just over 1,350 pre-owned business jets changed hands in the first half of the year — a touch ahead of last year's pace, but the path there was anything but smooth. Transaction growth was running north of 15% in December, then collapsed to roughly 2% by April after a geopolitical shock rattled buyer confidence. It wasn't a demand problem — deal volume has already rebounded to nearly 12% growth in the most recent data, and the second half is set up to outrun the first.
The activity numbers are real, but they're not evenly spread. Fractional ownership is doing most of the heavy lifting — up double digits — while traditional corporate flight departments actually pulled back. Strip out the noise and the fundamentals underneath are about as strong as I've seen in years: corporate profits just hit an all-time high, M&A activity is on pace for its best year since 2021, and manufacturers — who have the best visibility into real buyer intent — are building record backlogs. That's not a market anyone is walking away from.
What This Means For You
If you're buying
Inventory is genuinely tight, but rising days-on-market gives you more room to negotiate than the headlines suggest — especially on large-cabin aircraft, which have corrected closer to 2019 pricing.
If you're selling
An aircraft that's flying more is also burning through hours toward its next major inspection faster. If a sale was already on your radar, doing it before that expense hits is worth a conversation now.
On the Manufacturer Side
Gulfstream just delivered its 100th G700, and its backlog sits at $22.3 billion. Bombardier's backlog is up 43% year over year on Global 8000 demand. Dassault pushed the Falcon 10X's entry into service back to 2029 — but still booked 23 Falcon orders in the first half, nearly triple last year's pace. Even the delays are happening inside a market that's getting more active, not less.
Looking Ahead
Expect the second half to be stronger than the first. Manufacturer deliveries are set to accelerate meaningfully through the fall — the record backlogs point to a heavy Q3 and Q4 cadence — and if the pre-owned rebound holds, transaction growth should be back to double digits before Labor Day. Inventory is likely to stay tight into 2027; nothing in the order books suggests a supply wave coming.
The wildcard is year-end: with 100% bonus depreciation back on qualifying purchases, I expect a crowded fourth quarter as buyers move to close before December 31. If you're planning to transact this year, the smart window is before that rush — not inside it.
If you want to talk through what any of this means for your specific aircraft or your next move, that's the exact conversation I have with clients every week.
Schedule a ConsultationSources: JETNET iQ Market Monitor · ARGUS International · Dassault Aviation H1 2026 results · Gulfstream Aerospace · Bombardier. Figures reflect the most recent trailing-twelve-month or year-to-date data available as of publication and are subject to revision.