Market Insights
Dan's Market Insights
June 2026 — what I'm seeing in the market right now
Two things were true in June: buyer confidence was still finding its footing after the spring shock, and the aircraft that were already flying were flying more than ever. Here's what's actually happening, and what it means if you're thinking about buying or selling this summer.
What's Actually Happening
The confidence hit from February's Middle East conflict is fading, but it hasn't fully cleared. Transaction growth bottomed out at roughly 2% year over year in April, and June's numbers show a market still rebuilding momentum rather than one that's already recovered.
Flight activity never really stopped, though. Fractional operators pushed global hours up 3.4% in June, and North America logged its latest in a string of year-over-year gains. That's the split worth paying attention to: people who already own access are using it more; people deciding whether to buy or sell are still being more deliberate than they were a year ago.
The pre-owned data backs that up. First-half unit sales are up 7% versus last year, and IADA dealer members closed 746 aircraft — 21% ahead of last year's pace. Heavy jets are leading the recovery, with transactions up 18.5%. Super-mids, by contrast, are flat. Buyers are being selective about where they're willing to move first, and inventory at 6.5% of the active fleet — well below the 10-year average of 8.1% — hasn't given them much room to wait.
What This Means For You
If you're buying
Heavy jets are where the recovery is showing up first — both in transaction volume and in buyer appetite. That's also where competition for the well-maintained, newer-vintage aircraft is going to be sharpest. Don't wait for a confidence signal other buyers already aren't waiting for.
If you're selling
Inventory sitting more than a point and a half below the historical average is an advantage, especially in heavy jets. Aircraft logging more hours are also burning down time to their next major inspection faster — if a sale was already on your mind, that math is worth running now.
On the Manufacturer Side
Order backlogs kept building through June, with Bombardier's Global 8000 continuing to drive a meaningful share of new demand and Gulfstream's book staying near record territory. OEMs are reading the same recovery in real orders that we're seeing in resale activity — they have the best visibility into actual buyer intent of anyone in this market, and right now they're still building, not pulling back.
Looking Ahead To July
Argus is already projecting a 4.3% year-over-year jump in flight activity for July, which would be the strongest month since the spring shock hit. I'd expect fractional operators to keep leading that number, with charter and private operations following at a slower pace. On the transaction side, watch for pre-owned growth to keep climbing off April's low — nothing in the current data points to a reversal. The question for July is simply how fast confidence catches up to the fundamentals.
If you want to talk through what any of this means for your specific aircraft or your next move, that's the exact conversation I have with clients every week.
Schedule a ConsultationSources: ARGUS TraqPak · IADA (International Aircraft Dealers Association) · JETNET iQ Market Monitor. Figures reflect the most recent monthly and year-to-date data available as of publication and are subject to revision.