The third quarter was quieter than the summer suggested. Pre-owned turbine sales finished about 11% below the same quarter last year, and large-cabin jets, the market's strongest segment in the spring, accounted for most of the gap.
Last month we said August's rebound was a trend, not a bounce. We were half right: the twelve-month picture is still up, but the quarter itself cooled, and the large-cabin buyers who drove the spring took the summer off.
They have not gone far. Large-cabin jets drew more than a third of all buyer requests in the quarter, the best of them still sell faster than anything else, and the year-end window is now eleven weeks away.
Start with the quarter. Sales of pre-owned turbine aircraft from July to September ran about 11% below the third quarter of 2025, and large-cabin jets were down about 25%, more than two thirds of the total shortfall. Flight activity tells the same story from the other side: North American business jet flying in September was up 0.9% overall, but large-cabin flights were down 7% and privately operated Part 91 flying fell 3.4%. The owners and buyers at the top of the market slowed down this summer; fractional flying, up 7.2%, did not.
That is a pause, not a retreat. Over the last twelve months sales are still about 11% ahead of the year before, and 74% of listings that came off the market did so because they sold, up from 70%. Owners are not giving up on their prices: withdrawals in the third quarter were 27% below a year ago. Large-cabin jets remain the fastest-moving segment at a median of 77 days, with about six months of supply, and Gulfstream sales picked up sharply in September. Buyers are also asking: large-cabin aircraft drew 37% of the aircraft-wanted requests brokers sent in the quarter, against 25% of what actually sold.
The split inside the market is sharper than the averages show. A third of turbine listings have now been for sale for more than six months. In the super-midsize class, two older types, the Gulfstream G200 and the Falcon 50 series, account for 50 of 87 listings, with a median of 204 days on market and roughly two years of supply; the rest of the class sells in a median 77 days with about five months of supply. Young, well-documented aircraft priced against real comparables are moving. Older aircraft priced against last year's asking prices are not.
The two outside pressures we wrote about in September have eased slightly, but not gone away. The Federal Reserve's minutes, published on October 7, show most officials expect one more quarter-point increase before year-end, though not necessarily this month; futures markets have cut the odds of an October move to roughly one in five. The Bombardier threat, five weeks on, remains a statement rather than a policy as far as we can see. When Washington did escalate against Canada, banning about $1 billion of Canadian imports from September 29, the list was alcohol, dairy and motorcycles, not aircraft.
A slower quarter means more room to negotiate, particularly on older aircraft that have been listed for six months or more. It does not mean the aircraft you actually want is getting cheaper: young large-cabin jets are still selling in under three months. If you need the aircraft placed in service in 2026 for depreciation purposes, the practical deadline is earlier than December 31. Pre-buy inspection slots and delivery logistics fill from mid-November, so a buyer who wants a 2026 closing should be under contract in the first half of November.
The fourth quarter is the strongest selling window of the year, but the comparison with last year will be hard: the final three months of 2025 were the busiest stretch of the last two years. That puts the premium on preparation. An aircraft with complete records, a clean pre-buy history and a price set against recent transactions, not old asking prices, will find one of the buyers who paused this summer. One priced as if the spring never ended is likely to join the third of the market that has been waiting six months or more.
The G200 and Falcon 50 markets are carrying close to two years of supply, and Gulfstream's G300 is due to enter service in 2027. Neither changes what your aircraft is worth to the right operator, but both argue for being realistic on price and early on timing. If a sale is on your mind, a confidential conversation now costs nothing.
The next two weeks set the tone for the year-end. The September inflation report arrives on October 14, NBAA-BACE runs October 20–22 in Las Vegas, and the Federal Reserve decides on October 28. A strong inflation number would bring the next rate increase forward and give buyers who finance one more reason to lock terms early. At the show, expect the manufacturers to talk up backlogs and new models, and expect Bombardier's stand to be watched for any word on the U.S. question.
Our expectation for the rest of the year is a market that rewards preparation. The buyers who paused in the summer are still there, and many have the same placed-in-service deadline in mind. The constraint this year is likely to be time rather than money or inventory: dealers are already reporting tight pre-buy capacity, parts delays and labor shortages, and the deals that close in December will mostly be the ones agreed in October and early November.
If you want to talk through what any of this means for your aircraft, or for the one you are considering, that is the conversation we have with clients every week.